I’ll begin by throwing some numbers at you so you can have them in the back of your mind as we commence the discussion. Here goes:
- The current iterations of generative artificial intelligence – e.g. GPT 4o, Gemini, and Claude – as of May 2023, perform, on average, at the 93rd percentile in such tasks as comprehension and response to complex questions; the human baseline used in this case is at the 89th percentile.
- Investment in AI will approach 1% of the United States’ KES 3.47 quadrillion (that’s a thousand trillion) GDP by the year 2030.
- About 55.4% of Kenya’s KES 15.1 (15.1 trillion economy is service based. (KNBS, 2023)
- AI could eventually increase global GDP by 7%
The relationship between technology and job replacement is unconventional. A meta-analysis of 127 publications revealed that whereas about 7% of jobs have been lost to automation, the ratio of job creation to loss is at a counterintuitive 10:1. This means that for every job lost, ten are created. These numbers were however crunched in developed markets among which Kenya isn’t to be found. The question that then begs is what do these numbers mean for my job in my beloved emerging-markets country?
Fewer of our jobs are subject to replacement because, generally, fewer of our jobs are automatable. Despite the 55.4% reliance of our economy on the service sector, only about 18% of jobs are susceptible to full-time replacement. This figure is, however, beguiling because it assumes that the manner in which jobs are created in developed markets is akin to that in emerging ones. One, in the pursuit of a more satisfying answer, would have to consider the types of jobs that have typically resulted from automation and whether these are likely to appear in similar fashion in our markets. The analogy applicable here would be as follows – pre-personal-computer data crunchers lost their jobs on account of the advent of personal computers, but the loss of such jobs pales in comparison to the creation of such others as software engineers, data scientists, AI specialists etc.
Is this really a worthwhile analogy in the emerging markets context? I opine not. The ratio does not hold true because the starting conditions do not. The percentage of businesses that rely on existent technologies that can be bettered by AI are simply too low for parallels to be drawn. Additionally, it is not a foregone conclusion that such jobs as AI curators would emerge following elimination of such professionals as lawyers and administrators from the payroll.
Isn’t it more likely, particularly given our lux regulatory and monitoring systems, that such savings as would result from replacement of workers would end up in few pockets never to be reinvested into the economy in a productive manner? Well, this could be my cynicism at play so I suggest you think through it with a grain of salt.
It is nevertheless important to note that value equivalence does not necessarily result in replacement. An AI system value-equivalent to you in your current role as a cashier, lawyer, administrator or engineer isn’t a pound-for-pound replacement of you. Gemini cannot, at least yet, boast shared memories with your colleagues, spot that flashy pair of heels, laugh in that annoying manner as you do. There is a human element to employment. Your boss might just want to keep you around because you block the breeze running down the entryway to his office, or because he likes how you listen to his rants. People like doing business with people and so your job may be more secure than you think it to be. Well until Elon finishes his DeepMind project that is!
References
George, A. S. (2024). Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work: Job Shifting Not Job Loss. Partners Universal Innovative Research Publication, 2(2), 17-37.
Mariani, C., & Mancini, M. Will Ai Replace Project Managers? A Comprehensive Exploration of Project Managers’ Perspectives on Task Replacement and Transformation. A Comprehensive Exploration of Project Managers’ Perspectives on Task Replacement and Transformation.
Rony, M. K. K., Parvin, M. R., Wahiduzzaman, M., Debnath, M., Bala, S. D., & Kayesh, I. (2024). “I Wonder if my Years of Training and Expertise Will be Devalued by Machines”: Concerns About the Replacement of Medical Professionals by Artificial Intelligence. SAGE Open Nursing, 10, 23779608241245220.
Briggs, P., & Kodnani, M. (2023, March 27). The potentially large effects of artificial intelligence on economic growth. Goldman Sachs Research. https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf